Finding edge in prediction markets isn't about luck—it's about comparing prices across different sources and betting when the odds are in your favor. In this guide, we'll show you exactly how professional traders find mispriced markets.

What Is "Edge" in Prediction Markets?

Edge is the difference between what you think the true probability of an event is versus what the market is pricing it at. If you believe an outcome has a 60% chance of happening, but the market is pricing it at 50%, you have a 10% edge.

But how do you know what the "true" probability is? That's where bookmaker odds come in.

The Secret: Bookmaker Odds Are Sharper

Professional bookmakers like Pinnacle, FanDuel, and DraftKings have teams of analysts and sophisticated models pricing every event. Their lines represent billions of dollars of market wisdom.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Simmer, on the other hand, are often less efficient. Retail traders, meme traders, and casual bettors can push prices away from "true" value.

Key Insight: When prediction market prices diverge significantly from sharp bookmaker odds, there's often edge to capture.

Step-by-Step: Finding Edge

1. Get the Bookmaker Line

First, find the consensus line from sharp bookmakers. For an NBA total, this might be:

FanDuel: O/U 228.5
DraftKings: O/U 228.5
BetMGM: O/U 229
Consensus: 228.7

2. Check the Prediction Market

Now check what Simmer or Polymarket has for the same game:

Simmer: O/U 225.5 at 62¢

3. Calculate Edge

The difference is 3.2 points. In NBA totals, each point is worth roughly 3% in probability terms.

Edge = 3.2 × 3% = 9.6%

Since the books have the line higher than Simmer, you'd bet OVER on Simmer—the books think the total will be higher than Simmer is pricing.

4. Size Your Bet (Kelly Criterion)

With 9.6% edge, the Kelly Criterion suggests betting roughly 10% of your bankroll. Most professionals use "quarter Kelly" (2.5%) to reduce variance.

For a $10,000 bankroll with 9.6% edge: $10,000 × 9.6% × 0.25 = $240

What Makes a Good Edge Opportunity?

5%+ edge minimum: Below this, transaction costs eat profits
Sufficient liquidity: Can you actually get filled?
Time to resolution: Don't bet on markets closing in 5 minutes
Multiple book confirmation: One outlier book isn't enough

Why AI Helps

Manually checking bookmaker odds against prediction market prices is tedious. You'd need to:

Monitor 5+ bookmakers continuously
Track 50+ prediction markets
Calculate edge in real-time
Alert before prices move

That's exactly what AIEdge does. Our algorithms scan bookmaker odds every 30 minutes, compare to Simmer/Polymarket prices, and alert you when there's 5%+ edge.

Real Example: Our Feb 2026 Results

Using this exact methodology, here's what we found in February 2026:

29 bets placed
67% win rate
+$5,209 profit
Average edge: 15%

Bottom Line: Finding edge isn't magic. It's systematically comparing sharp bookmaker prices to less efficient prediction markets. When they diverge, you bet.

Get Started

Ready to find edge automatically? Check out AIEdge's live signals and see our current opportunities.

How to Find Edge in Prediction Markets (2026 Guide)